Survival Boot Camp Class of 2006

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June 22, 2006

Southern California overdue for a quake

From BBC News:

Southern California quake fears

The southern part of the San Andreas fault is overdue for a large earthquake, according to a study in the journal Nature.

This end of the fault has not experienced a major rupture for at least 250 years and is now primed for a release of the built-up tension.

The study by geophysicist Yuri Fialko provides the most precise measurements yet of this accumulated stress.

But scientists cannot predict when another quake is likely to strike.

It marks the meeting point of the Pacific and North American tectonic plates.

The southern segment begins near the Salton Sea and runs northward before bending to the west where it meets the San Bernardino Mountains. Los Angeles is the biggest city located near this part of the fault.

Professor Fialko looked at eight years of radar data from European Space Agency satellites that measure in detail how the ground moves and 20 years of global-positioning system (GPS) data.

His analysis suggests the two plates either side of the San Andreas fault are moving past each other at a rate of about 25mm (an inch) each year - the fault's "slip rate".

The bigger the average slip rate along a fault line, the more stress might be expected to accumulate on parts of the fault that remain locked together. In the absence of a sudden rupture to ease the strain, the fault has built up 5.5-7m (18-23ft) of "slip deficit".

If all the strain was released at once, it would have enough energy to unleash a magnitude eight earthquake - roughly the size of the devastating 1906 quake in San Francisco.

"The southern section of the fault is fully loaded for the next big event," Professor Fialko, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, explained.

Quakes are predicted to occur on the southern part of the fault every 200-300 years. And according to Professor Fialko, the observed movement on the fault is on a par with the maximum amount of shift the fault has ever experienced between quakes.

Scott Brandenberg, a professor at the University of California, commented: "This is new evidence that tells us the same story that we have known for a while.

"It's a reminder that we need to be ready for it when it happens."

The most recent major earthquakes in the northern and central zones of the San Andreas fault were in 1857 and 1906 respectively.

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